Kamala Harris will be the Establishment Favorite

If you were to combine Hillary Clinton with Barack Obama, you’d get Kamala Harris.

To the surprise of literally no one, California Senator Kamala Harris announced her run for the presidency on January 21st. Here is her announcement video:

 
Now I wish The Rock was running…
 

Today, we will go over her proposals, her record, and her chances to win.

Stances

Truth. Justice. Decency. Equality. Freedom. Democracy.

No, but seriously, that was a cringey start! Her stances on the issues will be starting from the beginning of 2017, when she first began working as a senator. I’ve decided to write this in list form while providing sources for each position. That way it can hopefully be more readable.

  • Legalization of marijuana (as of 2018) Source
  • Medicare-for-All (as of 2017) Source
  • Gun safety legislation Source
  • Pro-choice Source
  • Pro-LGBTQ Source
  • Pro-death penalty Source
  • Pro-AIPAC Source
  • Free college tuition for families that make less than $140,000 Source
  • $2.8 trillion tax cut for middle class Source
  • No PAC contributions, but still attends big donor fundraisers Source
  • There are of course more stances than ten, but this gives a good overview of what to probably expect from Harris’ campaign.

    Record

    Before becoming California’s senator, Kamala Harris served as the state’s attorney general from 2011-2017, and as San Francisco’s District Attorney from 2004-2011. As a result, most of her record falls under the criminal justice territory. And unfortunately, this is where things get really bad.

  • She refused to prosecute Steve Mnuchin after massive fraud Source
  • She used to think marijuana legalization was laughable Source
  • Her anti-truancy measures Source
  • Allowed an innocent man to stay in prison over a technicality Source
  • She backed civil asset forfeiture Source
  • She actually defended using free labor in prisons Source
  • Whether you think these are acceptable positions to take is up to you, but Kamala Harris’s past cannot be dismissed.

    Can she win the nomination?

    Amongst the candidates approved by the Democratic Party and media establishment, she will absolutely be the favored choice. She has everything they could hope for: she’s a woman, she’s a person of color, she is relatively young compared to Trump, she actively seeks out the support of the donor class, she gives the appearance of progressiveness without being serious about changing the system like Obama did. I would not be surprised to see a coalescing of support for her as the primaries start counting votes. In fact, CNN just granted her her own town hall while declining to do so for Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard, Julian Castro, Pete Buttigieg or Richard Oje- oh, he just dropped out. She will likely focus on platitudes and easy issues related to identity politics. I am curious how she will react to challenges to her record, but I expect she will try to dodge them. I don’t expect that she will excel in Iowa or New Hampshire, but since her home state moved its primary up to the beginning of the race, Harris will probably put more attention towards Nevada and South Carolina. There is no indication that she’d have a lock on African American voters, and considering her criminal justice report card… It’s really up in the air. However, the southern states are very establishment-oriented, so I would still say she has an advantage there. California is her home state, so she stands to pick up lots of delegates here. Being that Cali is as progressive as it is, I can imagine her being challenged by someone like Warren or Sanders.

    Can she win the general?

    Much like my other predictions for establishment candidates, I don’t see Harris winning the electoral college. Voters want a populist, if the last couple elections make it clear. Harris did not buck the established order in California, and became very progressive… Seemingly overnight. People who pay close enough attention will see through that. This isn’t indicative of the popular vote. Check out my predictive map from 270towin: Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

    Kamala Harris would’ve been a great choice in 2008.

    Leave a Reply

    Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

    WordPress.com Logo

    You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

    Google photo

    You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

    Twitter picture

    You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

    Facebook photo

    You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

    Connecting to %s